MARKET OUTLOOK
Nifty moved past 5000 after more than a month as positive global cues coupled with a neutral to positive
Budget buoyed the sentiments. Auto, banking and Metals were amongst the biggest gainers for the day. Tata
Motors zoomed up by more than 12% on turnaround of JLR. Others like M&M, Maruti, Escorts, TVS
Motors and Bajaj Auto were also amongst the day’s gainers. Hindalco and Tata Steel led the rally in the
metals space. Cement counters were also in demand on improved monthly dispatches. ACC and Ultratech
emerged as the biggest gainers amongst the cement pack. Oil marketing companies however, continued to
struggle post Budget and were amongst the major losers for the day. Realty counters were also under
pressure but managed to gain some ground towards the end of the session.
Nifty closed above psychological level of 5000 after surging past technically significant level of 4950. The
bullish pattern breakout suggests possible targets of around 5180-5200 in coming weeks. Immediate levels
that could provide resistance are 5070-5090. On dips market is likely to find support around 4985 and then
around 4940. Tata Steel has given a breakout above 600 and sustained trades above 600 could take the stock
higher to around 635-640. Sterlite also has a target of around 850 if it sustains above 785-90. HCC and
IVRCL Infra are forming bullish patterns with breakouts pegged at above 140 and 335 respectively. Both
could move up by around 8-10% each. M&M has some resistance around 1065-75 and beyond that it could
target Rs 1125-1135. Others that could look up are GE Shipping, DCHL, Dena Bank, Yes bank, Wipro and
Unitech.
Market in uptrend, after Index moves out of trading range
Will the Up Move last ?
This question will arise in our minds since it is always difficult to believe that prices can go up much
further.
Now, breakouts always have larger risk than pullback trades. In a breakout, the stops are wider. Then, there
is the unasked question: It has gone up so much, can it go further?
The answer is: We do not know. Therefore, we follow our charts. In the Nifty chart shown here, tm Trend
indicator has been displayed. The Blue line is the fast trend line. While the blue line keeps going up, we
should assume that moemntum favors the uptrend. If and when the Blue line starts becoming flat, or begins
to fall, we should evaluate our trading position.